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The 30 Years Rule – Innovation Takes A Lot Longer Than You Think

2017 January 8
by Greg Satell

“Agile” has become the mantra for the digital age. If you don’t move fast, so the thinking goes, you can never be any good, because your competitors will get there first and you’ll be left in the dust. In many circles, this notion has become so well established that no one even thinks to question it anymore.

While agility is a good thing for any organization, innovation is never a single event. For example, while Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin in 1928, it didn’t arrive on the market until 1945 — nearly 20 years later — and that span was shortened because of massive help from the US government.

The problem is that we tend to focus on the commercialization stage, when agility can be an important advantage, but often ignore everything that comes before. And that, unfortunately, leads us to ignore much of what that makes a transformation happen. The truth is that important innovations are rarely created in weeks or months. It usually takes about 30 years.

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Quantum Encryption Is Coming Sooner Than You Think. The Time To Prepare Is Now

2017 January 4
by Greg Satell

Internet security, once considered to be strictly in the domain of the wonkiest tech experts, has become central to public discourse over the past year. Besides the attacks on the DNC, even tech savvy business like Snapchat, Oracle and Verizon Enterprise Solutions have had significant breaches in the last year.

For the most part, these attacks were preventable. Often, hackers use a technique called social engineering, to trick people into allowing them into a system. Other times, they exploit a vulnerability in software to give them access to confidential data. In most cases, more stringent procedures can prevent attacks.

However, there is a more serious crisis coming. In five to ten years, we are likely to see quantum computers that are so powerful that they are able to break even the strongest encryption in use today. That means that soon, even our most vital and well protected data will be at risk. So if you want to protect your businesses, you should start preparing now.

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2017: Collaboration Is No Longer A Choice, But An Imperative

2017 January 1
by Greg Satell

Steve Jobs is, in many ways, the prototype for how many innovators see themselves. Brash and headstrong, he had an unfailing commitment to his vision and steamrolled anyone who dared to stand in his way. While he had failures as well as successes, no one can deny that he made a profound impact on the world.

So while researching my upcoming book, Mapping Innovation, I was surprised to find that the vast majority of great innovators I talked to were nothing like Steve Jobs. In fact, rather than ego driven megalomaniacs, I found them to be some of the most helpful and humble people you can possibly imagine.

The notion of a lone genius has always been a myth. As W. Brian Arthur observed in The Nature of Technology, innovations are combinations, so it is unlikely that anyone ever has all the pieces to the puzzle. Even Steve Jobs depended on a small circle of loyalists. Today, however, the ability to collaborate is becoming a key competitive advantage.

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Top Posts of 2016

2016 December 21
by Greg Satell

It’s been a crazy year, but look back a century and it’s interesting how many parallels there are. In 1916, the US was still recovering from the Panic of 1907, which led to the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. There was a lingering stream of William Jennings Bryan’s populism and a mistrust of institutions, especially large corporations.

Yet there were also nascent forces which no one could foresee that would shape the future. Starting in the 1920’s, electricity and the internal combustion engine would soon combine  with other technologies, such as refrigeration, home appliances and the automobile, to bring a half century of unprecedented prosperity.

We may be in a similar era now, with new computing architectures, such as quantum computing and neuromorphic chips poised to power entirely new fields, such genomics, nanotechnology and robotics. These are also the things I wrote about most over the past year. For those of you who might have missed them, here’s my top posts of 2016:

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The 2016 Digital Tonto Reading List

2016 December 18
by Greg Satell

Books have been very much on my mind this year, even more than usual. Full-length books provide a depth and a breadth that you just can’t get from an article or a blog post. A good, thoughtful book is a profoundly important thing and I’ve always been an active reader and enjoy letting new ideas wash over me.

This year though, I wrote my own, Mapping Innovation (coming out in May), and that’s given me new perspective. I had no idea how much went into writing a book. Not just the writing of it, but the extensive editing, design, production and marketing are all extensive processes in their own right and involve teams of specialists.

So while like in past years, this list reflects what I have written and thought about on Digital Tonto, it also includes those that shaped my own book, including some I used as source material. So, as the end of the year approaches, I hope you find a few that that you can read and learn from as you get some rest after a really crazy year. Have a great holiday!

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What President Trump Could Do To Advance Innovation

2016 December 14
by Greg Satell

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 Presidential election stunned just about everybody, but especially those who are focused on innovation. CNBC reported that the mood in Silicon Valley was “like a funeral.” An article in the prestigious journal Nature called him “the first anti-science president we have ever had.”

It’s not hard to see why. The President-elect has questioned the science behind climate change, calling it “a hoax” and has been hostile to immigrants, many of whom are our best scientists and entrepreneurs. Even for a politician, Donald Trump seems wholly uninterested in science and technology.

Yet what he actually does remains unclear because, as an analysis by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation observed, he has taken few positions related to innovation. Most probably, the real estate mogul hasn’t given the matter much thought. Still, if Donald Trump wants to support innovation in America, here’s what he should do.

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Let’s Not “Yada Yada” Innovation

2016 December 11

Most Seinfeld fans are familiar with the concept of “yada-yada-ing” sex, like when Elaine met a lawyer, went out to dinner, had the lobster bisque, went back to her place and yada, yada, yada… she never heard from him again. It’s funny, because we all know — or think we know — what the yada, yada yada means.

Unfortunately, as Jerry pointed out (see video below), sometimes we yada yada over the best parts. For example, we can say that “Elon Musk had an idea for an electric car, yada, yada, yada, Tesla transformed the auto industry,” but that tells us very little. Lots of people had ideas for electric cars, but none have succeeded like Musk.

This is especially common with stories about innovation, because while we like simple stories with clear lessons, innovation is an incredibly messy business. It can never be distilled down to a single event because it often involves hundreds or even thousands of people working across decades to take an initial insight and create a significant impact on the world.

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How Brands Can Become Great Storytellers

2016 December 7
by Greg Satell

Today, every brand needs to become a publisher. It used to be that marketers could come up with some compelling images, add a clever tagline and then push their message out through mass media. That might have been simplistic, but if you could reach enough people efficiently, it worked well enough.

But today, when you create an effective promotion, your competitors can track its effects and then retarget the consumers you worked so hard to persuade. Essentially, by building awareness and walking away, you are doing lead generation for your competition. It’s no longer enough to grab attention, you now need to hold attention.

That’s why marketers need to learn how to tell stories. A great story can provide emotional transport for a brand and create the basis for a larger narrative. Make no mistake, brand publishing is vastly more than creating longer and more expensive versions of ads. Marketers need to shift their mindset from being promoters to becoming master narrators.

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How Successful Movements Inspire Lasting Change

2016 December 4
by Greg Satell

The declaration of surrender was touted as a triumph. Microsoft Loves Linux, the headline read, but just a decade earlier, the firm’s then CEO, Steve Ballmer had called Linux a cancer. The all-powerful tech giant had lost and lost badly — to a ragtag band of revolutionaries, no less — but still seemed strangely upbeat.

Overthrows like these are becoming increasingly common and not just in business. As Moisés Naím observed in his book, The End of Power, institutions of all types, from corporations and governments to traditional churches, charities and militaries, are being disrupted. “Power has become easier to get, but harder to use or keep,” he writes.

The truth is that it’s no longer enough to capture the trappings of power, because movements made up of small groups can synchronize their actions through networks. So if you want to effect lasting change today, it’s no longer enough to merely command resources, you have to inspire opponents to join your cause. History shows these movements follow a clear pattern.

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Today, Every Business Must Transform Itself Into A Platform

2016 November 30
by Greg Satell

In 2001, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer declared war on the open source community. He called Linux a cancer and argued, essentially, that anybody who used open source resources in their was putting their business at risk. He even went as far as to urge the government not to support open source projects.

From Microsoft’s point of view, it was an understandable position. After all, its dominance of the industry was dependent on protecting its intellectual property. Yet a decade later, it open sourced Kinect, one of it’s most popular products ever. More recently, current CEO Satya Nadella declared that Microsoft loves Linux.

It was an startling shift and one the entire industry has long embraced as well. The reason why is simple: In a connected world, open beats closed and nobody can truly go it alone anymore. That’s why every business today must transform itself into a platform that connects to ecosystems of talent, technology and information outside the boundaries of the firm.

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