Comments on: The Problem With Facts

By: Greg

Greg — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 09:07:02 +0000

Well, he’s there in spirit in any discussion of falsifiability:-)

By: mani

mani — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 04:20:46 +0000

I’m surprised the name of Popper hasn’t come up in any of the comments or the text. (did i miss?)

thanks for the post.

By: Greg

Greg — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 14:34:01 +0000

Thanks for sharing.

- Greg

By: Ike

Ike — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 13:25:50 +0000

Greg, I am totally in line with your post, but don’t see AGW as a reinforcing example.

Global temps in the last 15 years have been flatter than the models anticipated. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the theory.

Add to that your qualification of science as being falsifiable — any shift in temperatures in either direction is hailed after the fact as “proof” of global warming. Those holding to AGW as doctrine haven’t had any luck at all with their predictive models, and the positive reinforcement feedback just isn’t in the math at all. Unusually mild winter? Climate change. Unusual snow in April? Climate change. Glaciers expanding in some places, retreating in others? Climate change, even though they have no idea in advance.

I want to clarify — CO2 does cause some warming. Just not the multiple degrees that are being forecast for the next 100 years. Those depend on positive feedback mechanisms that have not been observed. And if the people promoting the theory continue adding every anecdotal observation as proof, they are contributing to a theory that is non-falsifiable, and therefore not science.

By: Greg

Greg — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 12:44:52 +0000

Thx for coming!

By: Hilton Barbour

Hilton Barbour — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 12:29:26 +0000

Sneaky devil – that was quick. Thanks for your weekly kicks in the cranium. Always welcomed.

By: Greg

Greg — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 12:26:06 +0000

I already have:-) http://www.digitaltonto.com/2013/the-infinite-monkey-theorem/

You might also want to check out my post on “The Simulation Economy”: http://www.digitaltonto.com/2013/the-simulation-economy/

- Greg

By: Hilton Barbour

Hilton Barbour — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 12:22:45 +0000

Spectacular. I’m going to be replaced by a simulation. Scary, but not irrational, thought. Perhaps you could explore the linkage between creativity/imagination and simulation in a future post. If your hypothesis comes to pass, both will become vital skills in the years ahead.

By: Greg

Greg — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 11:58:05 +0000

Thanks Hilton. Scenario planning is important (essential actually), but I fear even that is becoming too slow. How do you plan for an Instagram or Pinterest? Once technology cycles become shorter than corporate decision cycles (and we’re almost there), planning itself will become obsolete.

We’re eventually going to have to stop planning and start simulating.

- Greg

By: Hilton Barbour

Hilton Barbour — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 11:52:34 +0000

Delightful as always mate. Working in the creative arena my exasperation comes from this oft-fielded request.

“We need something unique and novel. Could you also provide three case studies of brands who’ve done it previously”

Data and substantiation are a thinly-veiled attempt to avoid blame for failure – “I bought IBM so no way i’m responsible” – and most corporate culture’s don’t give much latitude for failure…despite all mission statements that suggest otherwise.

As always, I’ll beat the drum of “scenario planning” because that gives you options, requires both fact-finding and hypothesis-testing, and satisfies both the rational and faith-based pundits amongst us.