- Greg

- Greg

OK, I will concede on the first of your points. It is true that over time, market forces do favor ad based revenue models. This market force, however, has less to do with real consumer preferences, and more to do with stockholders’ pressures. Simply, companies like XM and TiVo are traded publicly. Their shareholders look towards more revenues and dividends.

I do not agree that RDF tagging is as big an issue as it seems. Right now this methodology is still at its refined concept stage. Once we have some discrete standards in place, (and a few neat data libraries like those Apple uses to reduce coding and speed up response times) the Semantic protocol may become more common than a URL address. We should also note that the amount of data involved in this will probably equal to that of a very large telephone book. The overall amount of analyzed data would likely match those associated with credit card transactions. I am sure Google has overbuilt its IT structure to handle such.

Keep up the good work.

I hear what your saying, but disagree primarily for two reasons:

1. The issue is not whether people will pay, but how many and how much. Generally speaking, consumers are more valuable to advertisers then content is to consumers. When a medium is small, the early adopters will often pay but over time, the economics favor and ad supported model. (This is the general case, there are obviously some important exceptions)

2. You define digital too broadly. The trends you mention are indeed important and real. Nevertheless, they remain problematic and apply to all media fairly equally, not just what is considered “digital” today.

As an example for semantic advertising to work, and enormous amount of data would need to be RDF tagged. This will take a while (and is indeed a problem to be solved).

As always, thank you for your comment.

- Greg

Thanks for the article. I thought it was provocative. So, I will add my 2 cents.

I believe there is another scenario out there to consider. First, although things like Ti-Vo were unsuccessful in ridding TV of ads, there is little doubt that these increasingly popular content providers materially challenge the old school advertising revenue mode. In fact, iTune, Pandora, etc., suggest that consumers are not only migrating away from commercial based content providers, but are also willing to pay subscription fees to get commercial free content.

Second, Apple, Inc., has changed everything again. Apple’s iAd program will be implemented in weeks. iAds are intended for handheld devices like iPhones and iPad. It’s commercial content is non-intrusive, provides consumers the power to view or reject commercial content, and — given Apple’s increased footprint as a media company — will provide a different commercial experience than the traditional ads. More significantly, it will likely change how advertisers think about the manner in which they will seek to deliver commercial content to consumers.

Third, digital advertising will likely become the preferred medium for advertisers. Why? One can more precisely identify a target consumer groups by following cookies rather than by relying upon things like Neilsen Ratings. During earlier times (prior to the its merger with Razorfish) “Avenue A” grew from a little academic idea into an important industry voice by data mining cookies. It fact, Razorfish was able to match cookies with consumer profiles. While there were some limitations to this approach, (chiefly, it was intended for geo-static Internet use) it was, without doubt, exceedingly accurate at identifying consumer behavior. The Avenue A model now becomes particular relevance now that mobile handheld devices are not only built with web browsers, display content, and are becoming the preferred medium for capturing and reviewing content.

Last, just as Google’s semantic search model has been used to place advertising properties outside of of content, there is nothing that precludes one from using the semantic model to place ads directly inside of content. (We can discuss this point in personal e-mails.)

Greg, these new trends are already in place; they are an unavoidable reality that has already changed the old school advertising model.

Interesting perspective. Thanks for sharing.

- Greg

The old media had to develop accountability methods (circulation audits, Neilson Rating, heck even bulk mail is accountable)… seems nobody stands behind anything when it comes to electronic media. And, the peculiar thing is everything is trackable with computers.

But the younger generations are raised on computers and most don’t even know how to read an old fashion newspaper or magazine. And, even I know you have to talk with your prospective clients in the media they receive information.

Hope accountability and honesty comes.

Thanks for your comment. I think you’re right that there is a lot of potential in digital media and direct marketing has proven useful for decades. The point isn’t to knock digital media, but to be realistic what the present and future actually look like.

- Greg

I especially agree (if I have read correctly) that the Digital Media arena is more interested it’s tools and toys than in the art of understanding customers and selling their products.

However, I wonder if customers can resist the temptation to reach for new Digital Media options (albeit less refined than some of the traditional marketing disciplines) because of their low cost and because of the perception that DM is more cutting edge.

Thoughts?

P.